Tesla China’s CP-03 verdict — CONDITIONAL — hinges on Q2 2026 delivery data. January 2026 deliveries collapsed 45% YoY to 18,485 units before rebounding 91% in February to 58,599. The financial war that erupted in late February zeroed out financing as a differentiator across 20+ brands. The Q2 CPCA quarterly data, expected in July 2026, will determine whether Tesla China’s demand is recovering or structurally weakening.
Three scenarios at T2 resolution: (1) Below 150,000 quarterly deliveries — demand weakness signal strengthens, CP-03 verdict likely escalated from CONDITIONAL to a stronger finding, Tesla’s competitive position in China requires reassessment. (2) Above 200,000 — seasonal recovery holds, financial war impact absorbed, CP-03 may resolve as seasonal-only disruption. (3) Between 150,000 and 200,000 — inconclusive, monitoring extends to Q3 data. EngiVolt Pro will publish a Post-Audit Note when T2 data arrives.